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CSA vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca — League #1063 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
3/13/2024League #1063League #1063 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CSA90%
×Draw9%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
2.67
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0.17

CSA creates 1471% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

CSA
3.33
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
0.33

allows per match

CSA
0.00
Cruzeiro Arapiraca
2.00

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Cruzeiro Arapiraca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Cruzeiro Arapiraca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–13%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–019%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CSA or draw
99%
CSA or Cruzeiro Arapiraca
91%
Draw or Cruzeiro Arapiraca
10%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
70%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
93%
CSA 2+ goals
74%
CSA 3+ goals
49%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1+ goals
16%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2+ goals
1%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
98%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Cruzeiro Arapiraca away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 3.33 + Cruzeiro Arapiraca defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Cruzeiro Arapiraca attack 0.33 + CSA defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

CSA scores more
90%
level
9%
Cruzeiro Arapiraca scores more
1%

CSA at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSA vs Cruzeiro Arapiraca

CSA beat Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2-0 in League #1063 on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.