CSA 0–0 Confiança: Result & Stats | Serie C

CSA

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Confiança

5/24/2025

Serie C · Round 7Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSA45%

×Draw28%

Confiança27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchConfiança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.96

CSA

1.32

Confiança

0.96

CSA creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 68 away

1.23

creates per match

0.81

1.10

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

CSA

1.23

Confiança

0.81

allows per match

CSA

1.10

Confiança

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Confiança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw

73%

CSA or Confiança

72%

Draw or Confiança

55%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

21%

Confiança wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

73%

CSA 2+ goals

38%

CSA 3+ goals

15%

Confiança 1+ goals

62%

Confiança 2+ goals

25%

Confiança 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

62%

Confiança (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.23 + Confiança defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Confiança attack 0.81 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CSA scores more

45%

level

28%

Confiança scores more

27%

CSA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Lucas Souza

37'

Dionisio

42'

Airton

46'

Renilson← Lucas Souza

46'

Alan Cardoso← Airton

57'

Marcelinho← Klenisson

62'

C. Breiner← Felipe Clemente

63'

Gabriel Vieira

66'

Enzo← Gabriel Vieira

66'

Tiago Marques← Igor Bahia

72'

Islan

72'

Gustavo Nicola← Ramon

72'

Danilinho← Guilherme Cachoeira

74'

Ronald Camarao← Thiago Santos

78'

82'

90+2'

90+5'

CSA

Confiança

1

Scheibig

6

▼

2

3

7

4

▼

Souza

8

Dionisio

5

Silva

10

▼

Vitinho

9

▼

Santos

11

▼

1

6

4

3

2

▼

Ramon

5

Camacho

8

Vander

7

▼

Klenisson

10

▼

Vieira

19

▼

Bahia

11

▼

Cachoeira

57'▲Marcelinho←▼Klenisson

66'▲Enzo←▼Gabriel Vieira

66'▲Tiago Marques←▼Igor Bahia

72'▲Gustavo Nicola←▼Ramon

72'▲Danilinho←▼Guilherme Cachoeira

CSA substitutes

12Georgemy14Marcao21Kevyn17Gustavinho31Paulo15Nicola18Silas22Marcelinho13Gustavo16Enzo20Danilinho9Marques

46'▲Renilson←▼Lucas Souza

46'▲Alan Cardoso←▼Airton

62'▲C. Breiner←▼Felipe Clemente

74'▲Ronald Camarao←▼Thiago Santos

82'▲Luiz Otavio←▼Vitinho

Confiança substitutes

12Allan13Renilson14Blade15Otavio16Cardoso17Geovane18Rafinha19Rodriguinho20Camarao21Breiner