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CSA vs Bahia — Serie B 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bahia
Bahia
4/22/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 3Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CSA45%
×Draw30%
Bahia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.19
Bahia
0.79

CSA creates 51% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

CSA
1.43
Bahia
0.74

allows per match

CSA
0.84
Bahia
0.95

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CSA or draw
76%
CSA or Bahia
70%
Draw or Bahia
55%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
20%
Bahia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
70%
CSA 2+ goals
33%
CSA 3+ goals
12%
Bahia 1+ goals
55%
Bahia 2+ goals
19%
Bahia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
65%
Bahia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Bahia away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Bahia defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bahia attack 0.74 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CSA scores more
45%
level
30%
Bahia scores more
24%

CSA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSA vs Bahia

CSA and Bahia drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.