CSA 1–1 Aparecidense: Result & Stats | Serie C

CSA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aparecidense

Tomas Bastos 36'

Raphael Luz 24'

6/20/2023

Serie C · Round 9Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSA41%

×Draw29%

Aparecidense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchAparecidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

CSA

1.23

Aparecidense

1.02

CSA creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

1.23

creates per match

0.94

1.10

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

CSA

1.23

Aparecidense

0.94

allows per match

CSA

1.10

Aparecidense

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Aparecidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw

69%

CSA or Aparecidense

71%

Draw or Aparecidense

59%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

18%

Aparecidense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

71%

CSA 2+ goals

35%

CSA 3+ goals

13%

Aparecidense 1+ goals

64%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

27%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

57%

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.23 + Aparecidense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Aparecidense attack 0.94 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CSA scores more

41%

level

29%

Aparecidense scores more

31%

CSA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

24'

35'

36'

37'

46'

Robinho← Ruan

48'

Iago Teles

55'

Guilherme Nunes

60'

Rodolfo← Yago Henrique

63'

Matheus Leal← Guilherme Nunes

63'

Robert← Raphael Luz

71'

Ferreira← Felipe Manoel

71'

João Diogo← Rafa Marcos

72'

Felipe Manoel

79'

Cedric← Iago Teles

79'

Thiaguinho← Tomas Bastos

80'

84'

87'

88'

89'

90+2'

90+6'

90+1'

CSA

Aparecidense

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⚽

▼

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⚽

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Manager: Vinícius Bergantin

46'▲Robinho←▼Ruan

60'▲Rodolfo←▼Yago Henrique

79'▲Cedric←▼Iago Teles

79'▲Thiaguinho←▼Tomas Bastos

89'▲Jô←▼Moisés Ribeiro

CSA substitutes

RobinhoRodolfoCedricThiaguinhoJôRicardoLuanMatiasCelsinhoEdneiErnandesFelipe

Manager: Hemerson Maria

63'▲Matheus Leal←▼Guilherme Nunes

63'▲Robert←▼Raphael Luz

71'▲Ferreira←▼Felipe Manoel

71'▲João Diogo←▼Rafa Marcos

90+1'▲Pedro←▼Alex Henrique

Aparecidense substitutes

LealRobertFerreiraDiogoPedroMenezesCallymanJacksonRigo