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CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga II 2018

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
10/16/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 10Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti62%
×Draw21%
FC Astra Giurgiu17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.00
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.95

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 111% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 12 away

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.75
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.92

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.97
FC Astra Giurgiu
2.25

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw
83%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti or FC Astra Giurgiu
79%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
38%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
37%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
86%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
59%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
32%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
61%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
25%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
78%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.75 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 0.92 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
62%
level
21%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
17%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1–1 FC Astra Giurgiu

CSA Steaua Bucureşti and FC Astra Giurgiu drew 1-1 in Liga II on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Steaua in București.