CSA Steaua Bucureşti 4–0 CS Afumati: Result & Stats

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

FT

4 – 0

CS Afumati

7/17/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti43%

×Draw19%

CS Afumati37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSA Steaua BucureştiExpected goals in this matchCS Afumati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

2.27

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

2.44

CS Afumati

2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

3.20

creates per match

3.00

1.53

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

3.20

CS Afumati

3.00

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

1.53

CS Afumati

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

CS Afumati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

CS Afumati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw

63%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or CS Afumati

81%

Draw or CS Afumati

57%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+

26%

CS Afumati wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals

91%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals

70%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals

43%

CS Afumati 1+ goals

90%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

66%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)

54%

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

CS Afumati away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 3.20 + CS Afumati defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

CS Afumati attack 3.00 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more

43%

level

19%

CS Afumati scores more

37%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff