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CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Brașov Steagul Renaște — Liga II 2018

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
11/27/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti38%
×Draw25%
Brașov Steagul Renaște36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.41
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.75
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.76

allows per match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.97
Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.06

finishing

CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par
Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA Steaua Bucureşti ↓

Brașov Steagul Renaște →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CSA Steaua Bucureşti or draw
64%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti or Brașov Steagul Renaște
75%
Draw or Brașov Steagul Renaște
62%

Winning margin

CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
18%
Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
76%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
41%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
17%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
74%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
39%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
52%
Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.75 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.41

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 1.76 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
38%
level
25%
Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
36%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CSA Steaua Bucureşti 0–1 Brașov Steagul Renaște

Brașov Steagul Renaște beat CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1-0 in Liga II on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Steaua in București.