CS Uruguay 5–1 Turrialba Fc: Result & Stats

CS Uruguay

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Turrialba Fc

3/2/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

CS Uruguay58%

×Draw22%

Turrialba Fc20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS UruguayExpected goals in this matchTurrialba Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.03

CS Uruguay

1.94

Turrialba Fc

1.03

CS Uruguay creates 88% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 101 away

1.51

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

CS Uruguay

1.51

Turrialba Fc

0.86

allows per match

CS Uruguay

1.21

Turrialba Fc

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par

Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Turrialba Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw

80%

CS Uruguay or Turrialba Fc

78%

Draw or Turrialba Fc

42%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+

34%

Turrialba Fc wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals

86%

CS Uruguay 2+ goals

58%

CS Uruguay 3+ goals

30%

Turrialba Fc 1+ goals

64%

Turrialba Fc 2+ goals

28%

Turrialba Fc 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)

75%

Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CS Uruguay scores more

58%

level

22%

Turrialba Fc scores more

20%

CS Uruguay at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff