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CS Uruguay vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
2/23/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

CS Uruguay54%
×Draw24%
Puerto Golfito23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.76
Puerto Golfito
1.06

CS Uruguay creates 66% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 84 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
77%
CS Uruguay or Puerto Golfito
76%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
46%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
30%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
83%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
52%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
26%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
65%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
29%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
70%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.76

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
54%
level
24%
Puerto Golfito scores more
23%

CS Uruguay at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CS Uruguay 4 – 1 Puerto Golfito

CS Uruguay beat Puerto Golfito 4-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.