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CS Uruguay vs Limón Black Star — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
2/21/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 7Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

CS Uruguay39%
×Draw26%
Limón Black Star35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.36
Limón Black Star
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 36 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Limón Black Star
1.33

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Limón Black Star
1.22

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Limón Black Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
65%
CS Uruguay or Limón Black Star
74%
Draw or Limón Black Star
61%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
18%
Limón Black Star wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
74%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
39%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
16%
Limón Black Star 1+ goals
72%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
36%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
53%
Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
39%
level
26%
Limón Black Star scores more
35%

CS Uruguay at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Uruguay vs Limón Black Star

Limón Black Star beat CS Uruguay 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.