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CS Uruguay vs Guadalupe FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
9/8/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 8Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CS Uruguay36%
×Draw25%
Guadalupe FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.39
Guadalupe FC
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 37 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Guadalupe FC
1.65

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Guadalupe FC
1.27

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Guadalupe FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
62%
CS Uruguay or Guadalupe FC
75%
Draw or Guadalupe FC
64%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
17%
Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
75%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
40%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
16%
Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
76%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
42%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
49%
Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
36%
level
25%
Guadalupe FC scores more
38%

Guadalupe FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Uruguay vs Guadalupe FC

Guadalupe FC beat CS Uruguay 4-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.