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CS Uruguay vs Curridabat FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
0 – 2
Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
4/4/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 16Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado (San Jose)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

CS Uruguay48%
×Draw24%
Curridabat FC29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.73
Curridabat FC
1.29

CS Uruguay creates 34% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 32 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Curridabat FC
1.38

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Curridabat FC
1.94

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Curridabat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Curridabat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
71%
CS Uruguay or Curridabat FC
76%
Draw or Curridabat FC
52%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
26%
Curridabat FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
82%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
52%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
25%
Curridabat FC 1+ goals
72%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
37%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
62%
Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Curridabat FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Curridabat FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Curridabat FC attack 1.38 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
48%
level
24%
Curridabat FC scores more
29%

CS Uruguay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Uruguay vs Curridabat FC

Curridabat FC beat CS Uruguay 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on April 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado (San Jose).