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CS Uruguay vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
0 – 1
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
3/24/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 14Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado (San Jose)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

CS Uruguay53%
×Draw24%
AS Puma Generalena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.71
AS Puma Generalena
1.05

CS Uruguay creates 63% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 73 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
AS Puma Generalena
0.89

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
AS Puma Generalena
1.90

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
77%
CS Uruguay or AS Puma Generalena
76%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
47%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
29%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
82%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
51%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
24%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
65%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
28%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
69%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.90 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.89 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
53%
level
24%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
23%

CS Uruguay at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: CS Uruguay 0–1 AS Puma Generalena

AS Puma Generalena beat CS Uruguay 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado (San Jose).