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CS Uruguay vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

CS Uruguay
CS Uruguay
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Antioquia
Antioquia
2/10/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

CS Uruguay50%
×Draw24%
Antioquia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Uruguay
1.73
Antioquia
1.19

CS Uruguay creates 45% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 32 away

creates per match

CS Uruguay
1.51
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

CS Uruguay
1.21
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw
74%
CS Uruguay or Antioquia
76%
Draw or Antioquia
50%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+
27%
Antioquia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals
82%
CS Uruguay 2+ goals
52%
CS Uruguay 3+ goals
25%
Antioquia 1+ goals
70%
Antioquia 2+ goals
33%
Antioquia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)
65%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Antioquia attack 1.16 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CS Uruguay scores more
50%
level
24%
Antioquia scores more
26%

CS Uruguay at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Uruguay vs Antioquia

CS Uruguay and Antioquia drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann in San José.