CS Uruguay 1–4 AD Guanacasteca: Result & Stats

CS Uruguay

FT

1 – 4

AD Guanacasteca

5/24/2020

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

CS Uruguay41%

×Draw25%

AD Guanacasteca34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS UruguayExpected goals in this matchAD Guanacasteca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.36

CS Uruguay

1.50

AD Guanacasteca

1.36

CS Uruguay creates 10% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 50 away

1.51

creates per match

1.52

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

CS Uruguay

1.51

AD Guanacasteca

1.52

allows per match

CS Uruguay

1.21

AD Guanacasteca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Uruguay+0.00on par

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Uruguay ↓

AD Guanacasteca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CS Uruguay or draw

66%

CS Uruguay or AD Guanacasteca

75%

Draw or AD Guanacasteca

59%

Winning margin

CS Uruguay wins by 2+

20%

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CS Uruguay 1+ goals

78%

CS Uruguay 2+ goals

44%

CS Uruguay 3+ goals

19%

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals

74%

AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals

39%

AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

CS Uruguay (draw refunded)

54%

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Uruguay at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

AD Guanacasteca away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Uruguay attack 1.51 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.52 + CS Uruguay defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CS Uruguay scores more

41%

level

25%

AD Guanacasteca scores more

34%

CS Uruguay at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CS Uruguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff