CS Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Vllaznia Shkodër

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vllaznia Shkodër

V. Găman 80'

Raúl Silva 62'

A. Mateiu 58'

7/28/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundComplex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova70%

×Draw17%

Vllaznia Shkodër12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchVllaznia Shkodër

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.89

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.40

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.89

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 170% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.09

creates per match

1.14

0.64

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.09

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.14

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

0.64

Vllaznia Shkodër

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

88%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Vllaznia Shkodër

83%

Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër

30%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

48%

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

91%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

69%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

42%

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

59%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

22%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

85%

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.40

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.14 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

70%

level

17%

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

12%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

51'

58'

62'

64'

J. Marković← E. Koljić

65'

A. Roguljić← Gustavo Vagenin

67'

71'

71'

75'

76'

80'

82'

83'

84'

R. Alivoda← F. Jonuzi

85'

A. Kruja← A. Hoxhaj

Statistics

CSVllaznia

Overview

10Corners1

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: CS Universitatea Craiova vs Vllaznia Shkodër

CS Universitatea Craiova beat Vllaznia Shkodër 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 28, 2022.

Goals: A. Mateiu (58'), Raúl Silva (62'), V. Găman (80').

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.

CS Universitatea Craiova vs Vllaznia Shkodër — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: CS Universitatea Craiova vs Vllaznia Shkodër