CS Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Uta Arad

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uta Arad

A. Tudorie 90+3' (pen)

D. Nistor 69'

3/16/2021

Liga I · Round 28Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova52%

×Draw22%

Uta Arad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.28

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.92

Uta Arad

1.28

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

2.15

creates per match

1.28

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.15

Uta Arad

1.28

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.28

Uta Arad

1.69

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova-0.27scores less

Uta Arad-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

75%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Uta Arad

78%

Draw or Uta Arad

48%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

30%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

85%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

57%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

30%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

72%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

37%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

67%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.15 + Uta Arad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

Uta Arad attack 1.28 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

52%

level

22%

Uta Arad scores more

25%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Tudorie← A. Ivan

58'

Nicușor Bancu

59'

Juan Cámara← G. Cîmpanu

64'

L. Antal← A. Petre

69'

D. Nistor

75'

I. Peteleu← M. Tomozei

76'

A. Voinea← V. Buhăcianu

79'

Liviu Antal

84'

M. Fedele← A. Cicâldău

84'

Ș. Vlădoiu← Ș. Baiaram

85'

D. Rusu← D. Miculescu

86'

C. Rus← A. Albu

88'

Erico da Silva

90'

Evgeni Shlyakov

90+1'

M. Căpățînă← D. Nistor

90+3'

A. TudoriePenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSUta

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots1

11Corners9

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots1

3On Target0

5Off Target1

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0