CS Universitatea Craiova 0–0 Radnicki NIS

CS Universitatea Craiova

0 – 0

Radnicki NIS

7/8/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova33%

×Draw24%

Radnicki NIS43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchRadnicki NIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.65

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.40

Radnicki NIS

1.65

Radnicki NIS creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.80

1.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.00

Radnicki NIS

1.80

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.50

Radnicki NIS

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Radnicki NIS →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

57%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Radnicki NIS

76%

Draw or Radnicki NIS

67%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

15%

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

75%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

41%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

17%

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

81%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

49%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

43%

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.00 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Radnicki NIS attack 1.80 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

33%

level

24%

Radnicki NIS scores more

43%

Radnicki NIS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff