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CS Universitatea Craiova vs HNK Hajduk Split — Friendlies Clubs 2026

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 2
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
6/26/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Zreški Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova21%
×Draw25%
HNK Hajduk Split54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
0.86
HNK Hajduk Split
1.57

HNK Hajduk Split creates 83% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.00
HNK Hajduk Split
1.64

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.50
HNK Hajduk Split
0.73

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

HNK Hajduk Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
46%
CS Universitatea Craiova or HNK Hajduk Split
75%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split
79%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
7%
HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
58%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
21%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
6%
HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
79%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
46%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
28%
HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

HNK Hajduk Split away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.00 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.64 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
21%
level
25%
HNK Hajduk Split scores more
54%

HNK Hajduk Split at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: CS Universitatea Craiova 1–2 HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Hajduk Split beat CS Universitatea Craiova 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Zreški Stadion in Zreče.