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CS Universitatea Craiova vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
3/4/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 26Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova47%
×Draw27%
FC Astra Giurgiu26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.39
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.97

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 43% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 54 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.63
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
0.81
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
74%
CS Universitatea Craiova or FC Astra Giurgiu
73%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
53%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
22%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
75%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
40%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
16%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
62%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
25%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
64%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
47%
level
27%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
26%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Universitatea Craiova vs FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Astra Giurgiu beat CS Universitatea Craiova 2-1 in Liga I on March 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.