CS Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Farul Constanta

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Farul Constanta

P. Papp 44'

3/7/2022

Liga I · Round 30Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova53%

×Draw22%

Farul Constanta26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.38

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.04

Farul Constanta

1.38

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.07

creates per match

1.61

1.14

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.07

Farul Constanta

1.61

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.14

Farul Constanta

2.01

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova-0.43scores less

Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

74%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Farul Constanta

78%

Draw or Farul Constanta

47%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

31%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

87%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

60%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

33%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

75%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

40%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

67%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.07 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.04

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

53%

level

22%

Farul Constanta scores more

26%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Alexandru Crețu

44'

P. Papp↳ B. Vătăjelu

46'

A. Conté← B. Vătăjelu

46'

R. Moldoveanu← A. Petre

46'

E. Radaslavescu← A. Ciobanu

46'

C. Grameni← F. Purece

65'

A. Roguljić← G. Cîmpanu

65'

E. Koljić← J. Marković

70'

D. Dussaut← D. Nedelcu

70'

M. Omoh← A. Pitu

72'

Michael Omoh

80'

D. Nistor← Gustavo Vagenin

80'

O. Bic← A. Mateiu

90+1'

Mirko Pigliacelli

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSFarul

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots6

7Corners1

12Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots6

2On Target2

10Off Target4

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2