CS Universitatea Craiova 5–0 Dinamo Bucuresti

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Bucuresti

J. Marković 90+1'

M. Căpățînă 62'

G. Cîmpanu 58'

A. Ivan 52'

L. Houri 18' (pen)

9/27/2021

Liga I · Round 10Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova48%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Bucuresti28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.22

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.67

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.22

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.15

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.15

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.16

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.28

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.18

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova-0.27scores less

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.01on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

72%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Dinamo Bucuresti

76%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

52%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

25%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

81%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

50%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

23%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.18 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.15 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.16 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

48%

level

24%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

28%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Deniz Giafer

16'

Deniz Giafer

16'

Deniz Giafer

18'

L. HouriPenalty

23'

Mirko Ivanovski

39'

Deian Sorescu

46'

G. Cîmpanu← A. Crețu

46'

M. Constantin← V. Screciu

46'

J. Marković← Ș. Baiaram

52'

A. Ivan

54'

M. Căpățînă← A. Conte

58'

G. Cîmpanu↳ M. Căpățînă

59'

Marius Constantin

62'

A. Radu← C. Itu

62'

M. Căpățînă

73'

A. Bani← R. Moldoveanu

74'

A. Ivanov← Gustavo Vagenin

83'

M. Neicuțescu← M. Ivanovski

83'

G. Crețu← S. Filip

90+1'

J. Marković

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CSDinamo

Overview

64%Possession36%

29Total Shots5

10Corners1

16Fouls18

Shots

29Total Shots5

14On Target3

15Off Target2

Passing

64%Possession36%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

16Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1