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CS Universitatea Craiova vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2026

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
2/6/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 22Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova51%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Bucuresti25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.69
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.10

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
2.00
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.03

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.17
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.39

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova-0.60scores less
Dinamo Bucuresti-0.03on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
75%
CS Universitatea Craiova or Dinamo Bucuresti
76%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
49%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
28%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
82%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
50%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
24%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.00 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.03 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
51%
level
24%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
25%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CS Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Dinamo Bucuresti

CS Universitatea Craiova beat Dinamo Bucuresti 1-0 in Liga I on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.