CS Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Dinamo Bucuresti

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Bucuresti

A. Mitriță 76', 70'

E. Koljič 45+2'

9/1/2018

Liga I · Round 7Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova48%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Bucuresti27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.15

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.63

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.15

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.07

creates per match

1.16

1.14

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

2.07

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.16

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.14

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.18

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova-0.43scores less

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

73%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Dinamo Bucuresti

75%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

52%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

25%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

80%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

48%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

22%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

64%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.18 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 2.07 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.16 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

48%

level

25%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

27%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

39'

42'

45'

45+2'

E. Koljič↳ A. Cicâldău

59'

A. Mateiu← A. Cicâldău

65'

M. Axente← D. Popa

70'

A. Mitriță↳ N. Bancu

72'

S. Popovici← I. Pešić

76'

A. Mitriță↳ E. Koljič

78'

S. Hanca← Diogo Salomão

80'

A. Burlacu← A. Mitriță

81'

Marius Briceag

88'

V. Mihăilă← E. Koljič

Shots

Statistics

CSDinamo

Overview

15Total Shots12

5Corners5

16Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots12

8On Target9

7Off Target3

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1