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CS Universitatea Craiova vs Concordia — Liga I 2026

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Concordia
Concordia
A. Băluță 14'
M. Cristescu 23'
7/22/2017Liga ILiga I · Round 2Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova58%
×Draw24%
Concordia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.65
Concordia
0.77

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 114% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 22 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Concordia
0.73

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
0.82
Concordia
1.68

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
83%
CS Universitatea Craiova or Concordia
76%
Draw or Concordia
42%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
32%
Concordia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
81%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
49%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
23%
Concordia 1+ goals
54%
Concordia 2+ goals
18%
Concordia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
77%
Concordia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.82 · 157 matches

Concordia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Concordia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Concordia attack 0.73 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
58%
level
24%
Concordia scores more
17%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Băluță↳ N. Bancu
23'
M. Cristescu↳ R. Răducanu
28'
Marius Pena
32'
Hristo Zlatinski
49'
Răzvan Grădinaru
51'
Raul Razvan Costin
55'
Alexandru Băluță
56'
A. Buleică← R. Grădinaru
62'
F. Rossi← H. Zlatinski
70'
P. Batin← M. Pena
75'
C. Bărbuţ← Gustavo Di Mauro
85'
A. Popescu← N. Bancu
90'
Cristian Balgradean
90+3'
R. Kortzorg← M. Cristescu

Possession

53%CS

Shots

10CS

Statistics

CSConcordia
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots5
6Corners2
18Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots5
2On Target2
8Off Target3
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls19
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: CS Universitatea Craiova vs Concordia

CS Universitatea Craiova and Concordia drew 1-1 in Liga I on July 22, 2017.

Goals: A. Băluță (14'), M. Cristescu (23').

CS Universitatea Craiova controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Drobeta-Turnu Severin.