CS Universitatea Craiova vs Chornomorets

CS Universitatea Craiova

CANC

15:00

Chornomorets

1/15/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova51%

×Draw26%

Chornomorets23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchChornomorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.92

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.50

Chornomorets

0.92

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.00

Chornomorets

0.33

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.50

Chornomorets

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Chornomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Chornomorets →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

77%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Chornomorets

74%

Draw or Chornomorets

49%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

26%

Chornomorets wins by 2+

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

78%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

44%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

19%

Chornomorets 1+ goals

60%

Chornomorets 2+ goals

23%

Chornomorets 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

69%

Chornomorets (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Chornomorets away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.00 + Chornomorets defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chornomorets attack 0.33 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

51%

level

26%

Chornomorets scores more

23%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff