CS Universitatea Craiova 0–2 CFR 1907 Cluj

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CFR 1907 Cluj

I. Martic 68' (OG)

M. Rondón 9'

2/23/2020

Liga I · Round 26Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova40%

×Draw27%

CFR 1907 Cluj33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.29

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.15

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 12% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 154 away

1.63

creates per match

1.47

0.82

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.63

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.47

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

0.82

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

67%

CS Universitatea Craiova or CFR 1907 Cluj

73%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

60%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

18%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

72%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

37%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

14%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

68%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

32%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

55%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.82 · 157 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

40%

level

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

33%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Rondón↳ V. Costache

21'

E. Koljić← L. Nițu

41'

Ivan Martić

41'

Valentin Costache

51'

Tiago Ferreira← M. Bălașa

65'

B. Omrani← V. Costache

68'

I. MarticOwn goal

75'

C. Bărbuț← A. Ivan

80'

Alexandru Chipciu

82'

M. Bordeianu← A. Chipciu

87'

C. Petrila← C. Itu

90'

Uroš Ćosić

Shots

Statistics

CSCFR

Overview

12Total Shots6

5Corners2

10Fouls22

Shots

12Total Shots6

8On Target3

4Off Target3

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls22

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1