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CS Tabarka vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

CS Tabarka
CS Tabarka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
3/12/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Municipal Tabarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CS Tabarka39%
×Draw32%
Sporting Ben Arous29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Tabarka
1.04
Sporting Ben Arous
0.86

CS Tabarka creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 46 away

creates per match

CS Tabarka
0.82
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

CS Tabarka
1.18
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

CS Tabarka+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Tabarka ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CS Tabarka or draw
71%
CS Tabarka or Sporting Ben Arous
68%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
61%

Winning margin

CS Tabarka wins by 2+
15%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CS Tabarka 1+ goals
65%
CS Tabarka 2+ goals
28%
CS Tabarka 3+ goals
9%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
58%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
21%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CS Tabarka (draw refunded)
57%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Tabarka at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Tabarka attack 0.82 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + CS Tabarka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CS Tabarka scores more
39%
level
32%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
29%

CS Tabarka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CS Tabarka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Tabarka vs Sporting Ben Arous

Sporting Ben Arous beat CS Tabarka 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Tabarka in Tabarka.