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CS Tabarka vs Korba — Ligue 2 2020

CS Tabarka
CS Tabarka
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Korba
Korba
5/26/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade Municipal Tabarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CS Tabarka37%
×Draw31%
Korba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Tabarka
1.05
Korba
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

creates per match

CS Tabarka
0.82
Korba
0.75

allows per match

CS Tabarka
1.18
Korba
1.28

finishing

CS Tabarka+0.00on par
Korba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Tabarka ↓

Korba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CS Tabarka or draw
68%
CS Tabarka or Korba
69%
Draw or Korba
63%

Winning margin

CS Tabarka wins by 2+
15%
Korba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CS Tabarka 1+ goals
65%
CS Tabarka 2+ goals
28%
CS Tabarka 3+ goals
9%
Korba 1+ goals
62%
Korba 2+ goals
25%
Korba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CS Tabarka (draw refunded)
53%
Korba (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Tabarka at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Korba away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Tabarka attack 0.82 + Korba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Korba attack 0.75 + CS Tabarka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CS Tabarka scores more
37%
level
31%
Korba scores more
32%

CS Tabarka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CS Tabarka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Tabarka vs Korba

Korba beat CS Tabarka 4-0 in Ligue 2 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Tabarka in Tabarka.