CS Tabarka 1–1 Kalaâ Sport: Result & Stats

CS Tabarka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kalaâ Sport

12/27/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Municipal Tabarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CS Tabarka41%

×Draw30%

Kalaâ Sport29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS TabarkaExpected goals in this matchKalaâ Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.94

CS Tabarka

1.17

Kalaâ Sport

0.94

CS Tabarka creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

0.82

creates per match

0.70

1.18

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

CS Tabarka

0.82

Kalaâ Sport

0.70

allows per match

CS Tabarka

1.18

Kalaâ Sport

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Tabarka+0.00on par

Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Tabarka ↓

Kalaâ Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CS Tabarka or draw

71%

CS Tabarka or Kalaâ Sport

70%

Draw or Kalaâ Sport

59%

Winning margin

CS Tabarka wins by 2+

18%

Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CS Tabarka 1+ goals

69%

CS Tabarka 2+ goals

33%

CS Tabarka 3+ goals

11%

Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals

61%

Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals

24%

Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CS Tabarka (draw refunded)

58%

Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Tabarka at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Tabarka attack 0.82 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + CS Tabarka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CS Tabarka scores more

41%

level

30%

Kalaâ Sport scores more

29%

CS Tabarka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CS Tabarka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff