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CS Tabarka vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

CS Tabarka
CS Tabarka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
6/8/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Municipal Tabarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CS Tabarka33%
×Draw31%
Jendouba Sport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Tabarka
0.96
Jendouba Sport
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

creates per match

CS Tabarka
0.82
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

CS Tabarka
1.18
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

CS Tabarka+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Tabarka ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CS Tabarka or draw
64%
CS Tabarka or Jendouba Sport
69%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
67%

Winning margin

CS Tabarka wins by 2+
12%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CS Tabarka 1+ goals
62%
CS Tabarka 2+ goals
25%
CS Tabarka 3+ goals
7%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
64%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
27%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CS Tabarka (draw refunded)
48%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Tabarka at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Tabarka attack 0.82 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + CS Tabarka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

CS Tabarka scores more
33%
level
31%
Jendouba Sport scores more
36%

Jendouba Sport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CS Tabarka 2–0 Jendouba Sport

CS Tabarka beat Jendouba Sport 2-0 in Ligue 2 on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Tabarka in Tabarka.