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CS Tabarka vs ES Hammam-Sousse — Ligue 2 2020

CS Tabarka
CS Tabarka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse
3/10/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal Tabarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CS Tabarka32%
×Draw29%
ES Hammam-Sousse39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Tabarka
1.02
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.17

ES Hammam-Sousse creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

CS Tabarka
0.82
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.16

allows per match

CS Tabarka
1.18
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.23

finishing

CS Tabarka+0.00on par
ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Tabarka ↓

ES Hammam-Sousse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CS Tabarka or draw
61%
CS Tabarka or ES Hammam-Sousse
71%
Draw or ES Hammam-Sousse
68%

Winning margin

CS Tabarka wins by 2+
12%
ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CS Tabarka 1+ goals
64%
CS Tabarka 2+ goals
27%
CS Tabarka 3+ goals
8%
ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
69%
ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
33%
ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CS Tabarka (draw refunded)
45%
ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Tabarka at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

ES Hammam-Sousse away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Tabarka attack 0.82 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.16 + CS Tabarka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CS Tabarka scores more
32%
level
29%
ES Hammam-Sousse scores more
39%

ES Hammam-Sousse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ES Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CS Tabarka 1–2 ES Hammam-Sousse

ES Hammam-Sousse beat CS Tabarka 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Tabarka in Tabarka.