CS Tabarka 1–0 EGS Gafsa: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

CS Tabarka

FT

1 – 0

EGS Gafsa

11/14/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Municipal Tabarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CS Tabarka35%

×Draw30%

EGS Gafsa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS TabarkaExpected goals in this matchEGS Gafsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.03

CS Tabarka

1.05

EGS Gafsa

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

0.82

creates per match

0.89

1.18

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

CS Tabarka

0.82

EGS Gafsa

0.89

allows per match

CS Tabarka

1.18

EGS Gafsa

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Tabarka+0.00on par

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Tabarka ↓

EGS Gafsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CS Tabarka or draw

66%

CS Tabarka or EGS Gafsa

70%

Draw or EGS Gafsa

65%

Winning margin

CS Tabarka wins by 2+

14%

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CS Tabarka 1+ goals

65%

CS Tabarka 2+ goals

28%

CS Tabarka 3+ goals

9%

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

64%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

28%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CS Tabarka (draw refunded)

51%

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Tabarka at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Tabarka attack 0.82 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + CS Tabarka defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

CS Tabarka scores more

35%

level

30%

EGS Gafsa scores more

34%

CS Tabarka at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "CS Tabarka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff