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CS Sfaxien vs Jendouba Sport — Cup 2019

CS Sfaxien
CS Sfaxienadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
4/19/2026CupCup · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CS Sfaxien27%
×Draw27%
Jendouba Sport46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Sfaxien
1.00
Jendouba Sport
1.38

Jendouba Sport creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

CS Sfaxien
1.13
Jendouba Sport
2.13

allows per match

CS Sfaxien
0.63
Jendouba Sport
0.88

finishing

CS Sfaxien+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Sfaxien ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CS Sfaxien or draw
54%
CS Sfaxien or Jendouba Sport
73%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
73%

Winning margin

CS Sfaxien wins by 2+
10%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

CS Sfaxien 1+ goals
63%
CS Sfaxien 2+ goals
26%
CS Sfaxien 3+ goals
8%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
75%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
40%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
37%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Sfaxien attack 1.13 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Jendouba Sport attack 2.13 + CS Sfaxien defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CS Sfaxien scores more
27%
level
27%
Jendouba Sport scores more
46%

Jendouba Sport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: CS Sfaxien 2–1 Jendouba Sport

CS Sfaxien beat Jendouba Sport 2-1 in Cup on April 19, 2026.