CS Mioveni 0–0 Viitorul Şelimbăr: Result & Stats

CS Mioveni

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viitorul Şelimbăr

4/15/2024

Liga II · Promotion Round - 4Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

CS Mioveni43%

×Draw28%

Viitorul Şelimbăr29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS MioveniExpected goals in this matchViitorul Şelimbăr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.03

CS Mioveni

1.31

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.03

CS Mioveni creates 27% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 69 away

1.39

creates per match

0.96

1.10

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

CS Mioveni

1.39

Viitorul Şelimbăr

0.96

allows per match

CS Mioveni

1.10

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw

71%

CS Mioveni or Viitorul Şelimbăr

72%

Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr

57%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+

20%

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals

73%

CS Mioveni 2+ goals

38%

CS Mioveni 3+ goals

14%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals

64%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals

28%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)

59%

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CS Mioveni scores more

43%

level

28%

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more

29%

CS Mioveni at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff