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CS Mioveni vs Unirea Ungheni — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unirea Ungheni
Unirea Ungheni
8/3/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 1Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CS Mioveni50%
×Draw26%
Unirea Ungheni24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
1.50
Unirea Ungheni
0.94

CS Mioveni creates 60% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 13 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.39
Unirea Ungheni
0.77

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.10
Unirea Ungheni
1.62

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Unirea Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
76%
CS Mioveni or Unirea Ungheni
74%
Draw or Unirea Ungheni
50%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
25%
Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
78%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
44%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
19%
Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals
61%
Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals
24%
Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
68%
Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Unirea Ungheni away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Unirea Ungheni attack 0.77 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
50%
level
26%
Unirea Ungheni scores more
24%

CS Mioveni at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Mioveni vs Unirea Ungheni

CS Mioveni and Unirea Ungheni drew 0-0 in Liga II on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.