CS Mioveni 2–2 U Craiova 1948: Result & Stats

CS Mioveni

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

U Craiova 1948

10/1/2022

Liga I · Round 12Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CS Mioveni32%

×Draw31%

U Craiova 194837%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS MioveniExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.04

CS Mioveni

0.96

U Craiova 1948

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 59 away

0.60

creates per match

1.02

1.05

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

CS Mioveni

0.60

U Craiova 1948

1.02

allows per match

CS Mioveni

1.05

U Craiova 1948

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw

63%

CS Mioveni or U Craiova 1948

69%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

68%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+

12%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals

62%

CS Mioveni 2+ goals

25%

CS Mioveni 3+ goals

7%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

65%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

28%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)

47%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.05 · 40 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 0.60 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.96

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + CS Mioveni defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CS Mioveni scores more

32%

level

31%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

37%

U Craiova 1948 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff