CS Mioveni 3–2 Slatina: Result & Stats

CS Mioveni

FT

3 – 2

Slatina

7/6/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CS Mioveni51%

×Draw20%

Slatina28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS MioveniExpected goals in this matchSlatina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.66

CS Mioveni

2.27

Slatina

1.66

CS Mioveni creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.25

creates per match

1.57

1.75

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

CS Mioveni

2.25

Slatina

1.57

allows per match

CS Mioveni

1.75

Slatina

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Slatina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Slatina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw

72%

CS Mioveni or Slatina

80%

Draw or Slatina

49%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+

31%

Slatina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals

90%

CS Mioveni 2+ goals

66%

CS Mioveni 3+ goals

39%

Slatina 1+ goals

81%

Slatina 2+ goals

49%

Slatina 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)

64%

Slatina (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Slatina away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 2.25 + Slatina defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.27

Slatina attack 1.57 + CS Mioveni defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CS Mioveni scores more

51%

level

20%

Slatina scores more

28%

CS Mioveni at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff