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CS Mioveni vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
5/19/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 36Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CS Mioveni46%
×Draw26%
Ripensia Timisoara28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
1.44
Ripensia Timisoara
1.06

CS Mioveni creates 36% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 70 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.39
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.10
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
72%
CS Mioveni or Ripensia Timisoara
74%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
54%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
22%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
76%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
42%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
18%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
65%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
29%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
62%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
46%
level
26%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
28%

CS Mioveni at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Mioveni vs Ripensia Timisoara

CS Mioveni beat Ripensia Timisoara 4-1 in Liga II on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni).