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CS Mioveni vs Dacia Unirea Braila — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
11/9/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 16Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Mioveni76%
×Draw14%
Dacia Unirea Braila9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
2.80
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89

CS Mioveni creates 215% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 19 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.39
Dacia Unirea Braila
0.68

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.10
Dacia Unirea Braila
4.21

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
91%
CS Mioveni or Dacia Unirea Braila
86%
Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila
24%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
56%
Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
94%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
76%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
52%
Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
59%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
22%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
89%
Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.80

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
76%
level
14%
Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
9%

CS Mioveni at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CS Mioveni 4–0 Dacia Unirea Braila

CS Mioveni beat Dacia Unirea Braila 4-0 in Liga II on November 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni).