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CS Mioveni vs Concordia — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
CANC
08:00
Concordia
Concordia
5/23/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

CS Mioveni42%
×Draw27%
Concordia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
1.33
Concordia
1.10

CS Mioveni creates 21% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 88 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.40
Concordia
1.09

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.11
Concordia
1.26

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
69%
CS Mioveni or Concordia
73%
Draw or Concordia
58%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
19%
Concordia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
74%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
38%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
15%
Concordia 1+ goals
67%
Concordia 2+ goals
30%
Concordia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
58%
Concordia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.40 + Concordia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Concordia attack 1.09 + CS Mioveni defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
42%
level
27%
Concordia scores more
31%

CS Mioveni at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CS Mioveni host Concordia

May 23, 2020: CS Mioveni take on Concordia in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.