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CS Mioveni vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
CANC
09:00
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
3/8/2025Liga IILiga II · Round 20Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

CS Mioveni37%
×Draw28%
Chindia Targoviste35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
1.22
Chindia Targoviste
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 60 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.39
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.10
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
65%
CS Mioveni or Chindia Targoviste
72%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
63%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
16%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
70%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
34%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
12%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
69%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
33%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
51%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
37%
level
28%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
35%

CS Mioveni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CS Mioveni vs Chindia Targoviste — Match Preview

CS Mioveni face Chindia Targoviste on March 8, 2025 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

CS Mioveni host Chindia Targoviste at Stadionul Orăşenesc.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.