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CS Mioveni vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
9/15/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

CS Mioveni46%
×Draw26%
ACS Sirineasa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
1.48
ACS Sirineasa
1.10

CS Mioveni creates 35% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 84 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
1.39
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.10
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
72%
CS Mioveni or ACS Sirineasa
74%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
54%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
23%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
77%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
43%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
19%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
67%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
30%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
62%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 1.39 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + CS Mioveni defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
46%
level
26%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
28%

CS Mioveni at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Mioveni vs ACS Sirineasa

CS Mioveni beat ACS Sirineasa 2-1 in Liga II on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc (Mioveni).