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ACS Sirineasa vs CS Mioveni — Liga II 2018

ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
10/22/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 10Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

ACS Sirineasa33%
×Draw27%
CS Mioveni40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACS Sirineasa
1.19
CS Mioveni
1.33

CS Mioveni creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 70 away

creates per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.36
CS Mioveni
1.19

allows per match

ACS Sirineasa
1.47
CS Mioveni
1.01

finishing

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par
CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACS Sirineasa ↓

CS Mioveni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ACS Sirineasa or draw
60%
ACS Sirineasa or CS Mioveni
73%
Draw or CS Mioveni
67%

Winning margin

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
14%
CS Mioveni wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
70%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
33%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
12%
CS Mioveni 1+ goals
74%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
38%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
45%
CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACS Sirineasa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.47 · 86 matches

CS Mioveni away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.36 + CS Mioveni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

CS Mioveni attack 1.19 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ACS Sirineasa scores more
33%
level
27%
CS Mioveni scores more
40%

CS Mioveni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACS Sirineasa vs CS Mioveni

ACS Sirineasa beat CS Mioveni 1-0 in Liga II on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Drobeta-Turnu Severin.