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CS Manika vs Tshinkunku — Ligue 1 2019

CS Manika
CS Manika
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tshinkunku
Tshinkunku
1/8/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Manika53%
×Draw31%
Tshinkunku16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Manika
1.20
Tshinkunku
0.53

CS Manika creates 126% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

CS Manika
0.73
Tshinkunku
0.79

allows per match

CS Manika
0.27
Tshinkunku
1.67

finishing

CS Manika+0.00on par
Tshinkunku+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Manika ↓

Tshinkunku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

CS Manika or draw
84%
CS Manika or Tshinkunku
69%
Draw or Tshinkunku
47%

Winning margin

CS Manika wins by 2+
24%
Tshinkunku wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Manika 1+ goals
70%
CS Manika 2+ goals
34%
CS Manika 3+ goals
12%
Tshinkunku 1+ goals
41%
Tshinkunku 2+ goals
10%
Tshinkunku 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CS Manika (draw refunded)
76%
Tshinkunku (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Manika at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Tshinkunku away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Manika attack 0.73 + Tshinkunku defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tshinkunku attack 0.79 + CS Manika defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CS Manika scores more
53%
level
31%
Tshinkunku scores more
16%

CS Manika at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CS Manika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Manika vs Tshinkunku

CS Manika and Tshinkunku drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on January 8, 2026.