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CS Manika vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

CS Manika
CS Manika
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
2/18/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Manika24%
×Draw35%
TP Mazembe41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Manika
0.63
TP Mazembe
0.94

TP Mazembe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

CS Manika
0.73
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

CS Manika
0.27
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

CS Manika+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Manika ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–120%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

CS Manika or draw
59%
CS Manika or TP Mazembe
65%
Draw or TP Mazembe
76%

Winning margin

CS Manika wins by 2+
6%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CS Manika 1+ goals
47%
CS Manika 2+ goals
13%
CS Manika 3+ goals
3%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
61%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
24%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CS Manika (draw refunded)
36%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Manika at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Manika attack 0.73 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + CS Manika defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CS Manika scores more
24%
level
35%
TP Mazembe scores more
41%

TP Mazembe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Manika vs TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat CS Manika 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 18, 2026.