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CS Manika vs Tanganyika — Ligue 1 2019

CS Manika
CS Manika
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tanganyika
Tanganyika
1/25/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Manika45%
×Draw34%
Tanganyika21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Manika
1.01
Tanganyika
0.60

CS Manika creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

CS Manika
0.73
Tanganyika
0.94

allows per match

CS Manika
0.27
Tanganyika
1.29

finishing

CS Manika+0.00on par
Tanganyika+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Manika ↓

Tanganyika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

CS Manika or draw
79%
CS Manika or Tanganyika
66%
Draw or Tanganyika
55%

Winning margin

CS Manika wins by 2+
18%
Tanganyika wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CS Manika 1+ goals
64%
CS Manika 2+ goals
27%
CS Manika 3+ goals
8%
Tanganyika 1+ goals
45%
Tanganyika 2+ goals
12%
Tanganyika 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CS Manika (draw refunded)
68%
Tanganyika (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Manika at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Tanganyika away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Manika attack 0.73 + Tanganyika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Tanganyika attack 0.94 + CS Manika defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CS Manika scores more
45%
level
34%
Tanganyika scores more
21%

CS Manika at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CS Manika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Manika vs Tanganyika

CS Manika and Tanganyika drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on January 25, 2026.