CS Manika 2–1 Panda B5: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

CS Manika

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Panda B5

12/21/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Manika63%

×Draw28%

Panda B59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ManikaExpected goals in this matchPanda B5

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.34

CS Manika

1.35

Panda B5

0.34

CS Manika creates 297% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

0.73

creates per match

0.40

0.27

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

CS Manika

0.73

Panda B5

0.40

allows per match

CS Manika

0.27

Panda B5

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Manika+0.00on par

Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Manika ↓

Panda B5 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

CS Manika or draw

91%

CS Manika or Panda B5

72%

Draw or Panda B5

37%

Winning margin

CS Manika wins by 2+

32%

Panda B5 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

CS Manika 1+ goals

74%

CS Manika 2+ goals

39%

CS Manika 3+ goals

15%

Panda B5 1+ goals

29%

Panda B5 2+ goals

5%

Panda B5 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

CS Manika (draw refunded)

87%

Panda B5 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Manika at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Manika attack 0.73 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.35

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + CS Manika defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CS Manika scores more

63%

level

28%

Panda B5 scores more

9%

CS Manika at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CS Manika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff