CS Manika 1–0 Lubumbashi Sport: Result & Stats

CS Manika

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lubumbashi Sport

2/21/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Manika49%

×Draw33%

Lubumbashi Sport17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ManikaExpected goals in this matchLubumbashi Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.52

CS Manika

1.09

Lubumbashi Sport

0.52

CS Manika creates 110% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

0.73

creates per match

0.76

0.27

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

CS Manika

0.73

Lubumbashi Sport

0.76

allows per match

CS Manika

0.27

Lubumbashi Sport

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Manika+0.00on par

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Manika ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–110%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

CS Manika or draw

83%

CS Manika or Lubumbashi Sport

67%

Draw or Lubumbashi Sport

51%

Winning margin

CS Manika wins by 2+

21%

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CS Manika 1+ goals

66%

CS Manika 2+ goals

30%

CS Manika 3+ goals

10%

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals

41%

Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals

10%

Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

CS Manika (draw refunded)

74%

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Manika at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Manika attack 0.73 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.09

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + CS Manika defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CS Manika scores more

49%

level

33%

Lubumbashi Sport scores more

17%

CS Manika at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CS Manika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff