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CS Manika vs AS New Soger — Ligue 1 2019

CS Manika
CS Manika
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AS New Soger
AS New Soger
3/10/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Manika56%
×Draw35%
AS New Soger9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Manika
1.06
AS New Soger
0.27

CS Manika creates 293% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

CS Manika
0.73
AS New Soger
0.27

allows per match

CS Manika
0.27
AS New Soger
1.40

finishing

CS Manika+0.00on par
AS New Soger+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Manika ↓

AS New Soger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–028%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
38%62%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

CS Manika or draw
91%
CS Manika or AS New Soger
65%
Draw or AS New Soger
44%

Winning margin

CS Manika wins by 2+
24%
AS New Soger wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

CS Manika 1+ goals
65%
CS Manika 2+ goals
29%
CS Manika 3+ goals
9%
AS New Soger 1+ goals
24%
AS New Soger 2+ goals
3%
AS New Soger 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

CS Manika (draw refunded)
86%
AS New Soger (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Manika at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.27 · 15 matches

AS New Soger away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Manika attack 0.73 + AS New Soger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

AS New Soger attack 0.27 + CS Manika defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CS Manika scores more
56%
level
35%
AS New Soger scores more
9%

CS Manika at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CS Manika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CS Manika 2 – 0 AS New Soger

CS Manika beat AS New Soger 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 10, 2026.